So by inputting your "juice" from your book into the spreadsheet (like say, -150 on the over), it will convert it into the appropriate implied win percentage (60%). What some beginner bettors may not fully understand is that a price (when you see -110 adjacent to a point-spread) has a corresponding win probability that is implied by that price. Some categories are easy to identify, like the team names, and the 1.5 listed total for all games. What am I seeing in the graphic/spreadsheet? Some sites, including one domestically, will hang a "2" occasionally, but you can safely assume 1.5 almost at all times will be the number in question. In almost all hockey markets, the standard over/under for a period is 1.5, and the juice varies widely, depending on the teams involved, on each side. OK, so maybe most of us know already, but in hockey, there are three 20-minute periods, and in addition to betting on the full-game outcomes, you can bet on sides and totals in each of the periods individually. Here are some (I'm guessing will be) frequently asked questions about this series: That way, no matter when you get to the projections, they can be optimized for you, without a lot of legwork on my end answering individual questions.
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The most appealing characteristic of this medium is you can then download the projection numbers (not the algorithm, or any proprietary information beyond the projections) and input the price at your particular book, to see if an edge got larger or smaller, or what the exact edge, in case you wish to bet accordingly. Rather than taking just a screenshot and pinning it to a Twitter account, where there may be plenty of questions (most notably, about prices changing throughout the day) I am instead publishing them here, as a daily post (when there are three or more games on the slate). I have chosen to share the projections on Twitter for about a week or two LockyLockerson) and the response has been so overwhelming to them that finding a more easy-to-interact-with medium became a goal.
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How To Bet On the NHL and What Advanced Stats To Use Read now 3 until it's first post on this site, those projections had about a 23% ROI, over a little less than 300 total games played in the league during that time. I then further modified it to provide very accurate first period goal-total projections for each game.įrom Jan. It uses an algorithm derived pretty simply from linear regression of a variety of statistics. I recently, around the holidays, put together an NHL model that's pretty straightforward.
For the most degenerate among us, that's quite an appealing characteristic for a bet to have.
You will know, sometimes in as little time as a few minutes, whether you are a winner or not. Thanks to the Tampa Bay Lightning and Chicago Blackhawks, each of whom went on long streaks of going over their respective 1st period over/unders, this prop started to create some buzz in the gambling community.Īs a bet, first period totals can be fun, sort of in the same way a horse race is fun: There is a payout much quicker than in a traditional game-long market.
Believe it or not, first period hockey totals had a bit of a moment this season.
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